Analyst: Console base has ‘peaked,’ won’t get bigger; PS4 to outsell Xbox One
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said he believe the console market cannot bear to grow any bigger and console may become irrelevant …
I always question these sorts of analytics, not because there isn’t some measure of truth to them, but because the logic seems so flawed. Mobile gaming does outpace console gaming in both number of users and growth. It doesn’t follow, though, that console gaming’s user base will no longer grow. You could argue Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo have a ripe audience of would-be console gamers if they could figure out how to convert them.
Also, people have been decrying this end of consoles era for 20 years now. I’m not sure I buy in. It’s more reasonable to me to think of consoles as a slow growth market. PS4 will likely sell 1 million units in it’s launch window, but could grow to 80-100M units over it’s lifespan. iPhone 5S, by comparison, sold 9M in it’s launch window and has a shorter lifespan. You can make comparisons with game consoles and mobile devices, but it really is apples and oranges in many ways.